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Oriental Crisis
This is about a fictional representation of a real world event History The Oriental Crisis began in 1840 when Muhammad Ali Pasha declared Egypt independent from rule by the Ottoman Empire. The Ottomans had already shown signs of weakness by this point, sometimes called the "Sick Man of Europe" thanks to its declining influence, and the Egyptians were incredibly strong and militarily advanced. After initial Egyptian successes, the powers of Europe moved to intervene: the United Kingdom, Austria, Prussia and Russia all convened at the Convention of London and demanded Muhammad Ali withdraw from the Levant, offering him and his successors rule over Egypt provided they remained nominally part of the Ottoman Empire. Believing support from France, Muhammad Ali refused. After a brief war, Muhammad Ali surrendered and agreed to the Convention-- all claims to Crete and the Hedjaz were renounced, and Egypt withdrew from the Levant. His rule over Egypt and the Sudan was confirmed, again under the nominal rule of the Ottomans... though in truth Egypt had become independent. The Oriental Crisis in PDM and Vanilla In Vanilla, Egypt begins the game as an independent country. It controls all the territory that Muhammad Ali Pasha controlled historically-- save for the Hedjaz, which is represented as independent as well. The Ottomans have cores over Crete and the Levant, and are likely to fight the Egyptians in a series of wars until it either gets those cores back or is balked by other powers that have sphered Egypt and will intervene on its behalf. In PDM, the opening set-up is quite different. Egypt is a vassal of the Ottoman Empire, and Hedjaz is a vassal of Egypt. The Ottomans have cores over the Levant and Crete, as well as Hedjaz all the way down to Asir (the portion of southwest Arabia between the Hedjaz and Yemen). Egypt does not own cores on Crete or the Levant, but it does control them at the beginning of the game. When Egypt declares its independence, the Ottomans are likely to declare war... and this can bring in a number of European powers to declare support either for them or for Egypt, depending on their relations with those involved. Egypt also has a surrender event, as well as a success event should it manage to hold onto any of the Levant later than 1860. How it begins So long as Egypt is still a vassal of the Ottoman Empire, the "Fate of Egypt" event (id #90075) will fire sometime after 1837. The MTTH is 50 months, but that will shrink as the game passes 1840... so most likely it will occur sometime in the early to mid part of the 1840's. The event frees Egypt, reduces the diplomatic influence of all ''great powers in Egypt by -200 and sends the "'Oriental Crisis'" event (id# 90076) to the Ottoman Empire: *'Text': "Egypt has been effectively independent for some time. Now that independence has become all too apparent, and Ottoman mastery over the Orient is threatened. Either we must take steps to rectify the situation, and assert our dominance once and for all, or admit to the world that our power is little more than an illusion. There are those who feel that a peaceful solution is possible, and that the Egyptians might better serve as powerful allies than as implacable enemies, but that would require us to surrender our claim to Egyptian lands as well as be an affront to Ottoman pride." *'Option #1': "Egypt is part of the Empire!" **sets the "oriental_crisis" global flag **-100 relations with Egypt **leaves any existing alliance with Egypt **+20% jingoism to all Turkish pops **starts a war with Egypt to acquire the Ankara and Aleppo regions. In this particular case, only Ottoman vassals will be called into the war-- none of their great power allies will be. They can only be called in via event. **90% chance of AI choosing *'Option #2': "We are willing to negotiate a settlement." **-10 Prestige **+6 militancy for all jingoism pops which are Turkish **sends the "Negotiations with the Empire" event (id# 90077) to Egypt **10% chance of AI choosing Should the Ottoman Empire choose to negotiate, Egypt has a 50% chance of agreeing. It it does not, then it loses -5 Prestige and the Oriental Crisis proceeds normally. If it does, the following occurs: *+10 Prestige for Egypt *-25 Prestige for the Ottoman Empire *+100 relations between Egypt and the Ottoman Empire *-100 relations between the Ottoman Empire and Russia *the Ottoman Empire leaves any current alliance with Russia *alliance created between the Ottoman Empire and Egypt, if it does not already exist *+400 diplomatic influence for the Ottoman Empire in Egypt *all of the Ankara region and all Syrian cores are seceded to the Ottoman Empire *Egyptian cores are added to Lebanon, Palestine and Transjordan. Ottoman cores are removed *Ottoman cores removed from the Hedjaz and Sana'a regions *+4 militancy to all Misri pops in Egypt *+3 militancy to all non-Turkish pops in Egypt This option also sets the "abandoned_holy_land" global... which means that any Catholic great power (or the United Kingdom) will have a free "Claim the Levant" CB. They can use this against any unciv that controls provinces in the Levant, and it costs them no infamy. This CB lasts until the Suez canal is built. Supporting the Ottoman Empire or Egypt Once the Oriental Crisis is underway, great powers in Europe that have very good or very poor relations with either Egypt or the Ottoman Empire will receive an event to consider intervention. Countries that are on good terms with the Ottomans or on poor terms with Egypt will receive the "'Oriental Crisis'" event (id# 90085): *'Text': "$COUNTRY_ADJ$ diplomats have been watching the crisis develop in the Orient for some time, and now that the Ottomans and Egyptians are at war it has become clear that the Empire's hold over its dominion is crumbling. Should the Egyptians successfully challenge Ottoman rule, it could upset the entire balance of power in the region... something that many feel would threaten $COUNTRY_ADJ$ interests. Still others believe that $COUNTRY$ must remain neutral, despite the cost to our relations with the Empire." *'Requirements': **is a greater power with its capital province in Europe **the "oriental_crisis" global flag has been set **the Ottoman Empire is at war with Egypt **is either in an alliance with the Ottoman Empire (and has relations of 0 or better), has relations of 50 or better with the Ottoman Empire or has relations of -50 or lower with Egypt **the year is not later than 1860 **the country does not have an alliance with Egypt **is not at war with either Egypt or the Ottoman Empire *'MTTH': 2 months **faster if the country has an alliance with the Ottoman Empire **much slower if the Ottoman Empire does not have any of its provinces occupied **slower if Egypt does not have any of its provinces occupied **faster if the Ottomans have provinces occupied, especially if over 10% *'Option #1': "Support the Empire." **-50 diplomatic influence with Egypt **+75 relations with the Ottoman Empire **starts an immediate war with Egypt using the "Cut Down to Size" CB **-10 war exhaustion for the Ottoman Empire **creates an alliance with the Ottoman Empire (if none already exists) **any country which has pledged support for Egypt will immediately receive the "Country Demands Withdrawal" event (id# 90093) *'Option #2': "The Ottomans are on their own." **-5 Prestige **-25 relations with the Ottoman Empire If a country has good relations or influence with Egypt, meanwhile, or the Ottomans are an enemy, then it receives a different version of the "'Oriental Crisis'" event (id# 90090): *'Text': "$COUNTRY_ADJ$ diplomats have been watching the crisis develop in the Orient for some time, and now that the Ottomans and Egyptians are at war it has become clear that the Empire's hold over its dominion is crumbling. Egyptian diplomats have contacted ours through channels, and suggested that support in its war would be appreciated and rewarded. The Ottomans, they rightfully point out, are after all no friends of $COUNTRY$. Such an act could earn us the enmity of the Empire and its allies, however, and thus feel we must remain neutral in the conflict despite the possible benefit to $COUNTRY_ADJ$ interests." *'Requirements': **is a greater power with its capital province in Europe **the "oriental_crisis" global flag has been set **the Ottoman Empire is at war with Egypt **is either in an alliance with Egypt (and has relations of 0 or better), has relations of 50 or better with Egypt or has relations of -50 or lower with the Ottoman Empire **the year is not later than 1860 **does not have an alliance with the Ottoman Empire **is not at war with either Egypt or the Ottoman Empire *'MTTH': 3 months **faster if the country has an alliance with Egypt **much slower if Egypt does not have any of its provinces occupied **slower if the Ottoman Empire does not have any of its provinces occupied **faster if Egypt has provinces occupied, especially if over 10% *'Option #1': "Support the Egyptians." **+10 Prestige **+100 relations with Egypt **+400 diplomatic influence with Egypt **the Ottoman Empire receives the "$FROMCOUNTRY$ Supports the Egyptians" event (id# 90091) **any country which has already pledged to support the Ottoman Empire receives the "$FROMCOUNTRY$ Supports the Egyptians" event (id# 90092) *'Option #2': "We shall remain neutral." **-5 Prestige **-25 relations with Egypt The version of the "'$FROMCOUNTRY$ Supports the Egyptians'" event (id# 90091) that the Ottoman Empire receives notifies them of the intervention. It has two options, one that drops the Ottoman's prestige by -5 and lowers relations with the intervening power by -50. The other drops relations by -100 and gives them a Humiliate CB against the Ottoman Empire, but also gives the Ottomans a Humiliate CB against them. Other country that receive the ""'$FROMCOUNTRY$ Supports the Egyptians'" event (id# 90092) have the opportunity to protest and demand that the country rescind its support of Egypt. If it doesn't, it loses -5 Prestige and -10 relations with the Ottoman Empire. If it does, it loses -20 relations with the country and sends them an event demanding withdrawal. If the country agrees (though it is unlikely to), it loses -10 Prestige, -25 relations with Egypt and -200 diplomatic influence with Egypt. If it refuses to back down, it loses -50 relations with the country that made the demand and they get a Humiliate CB against it. Egyptian Surrender There is a scripted event called the "'Fall of Egypt'" (id# 90087) should Egypt do poorly enough in the war that follows... or in the wars that follow that. Typically, should the surrender event not fire during the first series of wars with the Ottoman Empire and its supporters, they will return roughly every five years. The Ottomans will attack, and any of its supporters will have a "Oriental Crisis" CB that returns Ottoman cores back to it from Egypt and costs the attacker no infamy. This should last until the 1860's. *'Text': "Our forces are on the run. It seems the hated Ottomans and their allies have won the day, and we have little choice but to submit to their demands. We can try to hold out and turn the tide, but it is far more likely that Egypt will simply be carved up into pieces by the imperialists if we do." *'Requirements': **happens to Egypt only **is either at war with the Ottoman Empire or at war with any greater power who has pledged support for the Ottoman Empire **any owned province is an Ottoman core **either Cairo is controlled by another country, Egypt does not control any Ottoman core province that it owns or 30% of Egypt's national core provinces are occupied **the year is not later than 1860 *'MTTH': 3 months **reduced to 2 weeks if Cairo is occupied **reduced to 1.5 months if 30% of Egypt is occupied *'Option #1': "We will submit to the Turks." **-25 Prestige **the Ottoman Empire receives the "Egyptian Surrender" event (id# 90088) **95% chance of AI choosing this option *'Option #2': "Never! We hold out!" **-10 war exhaustion **the surrender event will never appear again **5% of the AI choosing this option If the Ottomans accept the surrender (which the AI always will), it has the following effect: *+20 Prestige for the Ottoman Empire *cancels any war with Egypt (this simply removes all current wargoals, without penalty) *+300 relations with Egypt *any Egyptian-owned province which is an Ottoman core is annexed *any greater power that pledged to support the Ottomans and is currently at war with Egypt or which holds an Ottoman core province will receive a surrender event. If they agree to stand down, they secede all Ottoman cores back to the Ottoman Empire and cancel their war with Egypt. If they refuse, they lose relations with the Ottomans and leave any alliance with them, and proceed as before. Egyptian Success It's possible that Egypt might succeed in the initial war (it's quite strong), and indeed might even be able to push back intervening powers (particularly if a country like France or Russia comes to its assistance). Generally this will mean periodic war with the Ottomans and its supporters, but should Egypt hold onto its provinces in the Levant long enough it can end this cycle with the "'Egyptian Levant'" event (id# 90080): *'Text': "The Turks have proven unable to retake the Levant from us, despite all the assistance they have received from the rest of Europe. Even those great powers must now admit that the Levant rightfully belongs to us, and that the 'Sick Man of Europe' has no claim over it." *'Requirements': **occurs for Egypt only **not at war **year is later than 1860 **owns any province with a Syria, Lebanon, Palestine or Jordan core *'MTTH': 50 months **x0.1 if Egypt is civilized **x0.5 if the Ottoman Empire is neither a greater power nor a secondary power *'Effects': **clears the "oriental_crisis" global flag **sets the "abandoned_holy_land" global flag **+20 Prestige **any currently owned province in the Levant (so any province with a Syria, Lebanon, Palestine or Jordan core) will have its Ottoman cores removed and Egyptian cores added It should be noted that, similar to the result where the Ottoman Empire negotiates with Egypt and surrenders control of the southern Levant, the existance of the "abandoned_holy_land" flag means any Catholic great power (or the United Kingdom) will have a free "Claim the Levant" CB. They can use this against any unciv that controls provinces in the Levant, and it costs them no infamy. This CB lasts until the Suez canal is built. So despite fending off the Ottomans and its supporters, Egypt will not be out of the woods entirely. What happens to Hedjaz Not long after the Oriental Crisis begins, the Hedjaz will need to make a decision: typically it's in the sphere of the Ottoman Empire and is Egypt's vassal. Who will it side with? This prompts the "'Rule of Hedjaz'" event (id# 96115): *'Text': "We have always been torn between our loyalty to Egypt and to the Ottoman Empire. The time has come to decide between them." *'Requirements': **occurs for Hedjaz only **vassal of Egypt **in the sphere of the Ottoman Empire **the Ottoman Empire is at war with Egypt *'MTTH': 1 month *'Immediate effects': **Ottoman cores removed from the Hedjaz and Sana'a regions *'Option #1': "We fear the Ottomans more." **leave any current alliance with Egypt **Egypt releases Hedjaz and receives the "Rebellion in our vassal!" event (id# 800055) **-50 relations with Egypt **+50 relations with the Ottoman Empire *'Option #2''': "We side with Egypt." **leave any current alliance with the Ottoman Empire **-50 relations with the Ottoman Empire **the Ottoman Empire gets -200 diplomatic influence with Hedjaz **+50 relations with Egypt Note that, even if the Hedjaz does not receive this event or chooses to side with the Egyptians, they still have a decision they can invoke should they ever not border any Egyptian provinces which will declare their freedom at that time. Category:Events and Decisions